🏈 🔵 Five Sleeper Teams That Could Crash The College Football Playoff Race
Which squads should be on everyone's radar that nobody is talking about?
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Five Sleeper Teams That Could Crash The College Football Playoff Race
Hey friends,
Since the College Football Playoff’s inception 10 years ago, just 15 different programs have found their way into the postseason format.
With expansion moving the postseason format from four to 12 teams, the formerly exclusive event is set for a drastic makeover.
Instead of mainstays littering the bracket’s stage, newcomers are bound to break into the extended field.
Aside from squads among the likes of Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Utah, which have all been knocking on the playoff’s door, I expect a few sleepers to sneak into the dance in 2024.
Let’s take a look at five College Football Playoff sleeper picks I have my eye on before the campaign kicks off in 10 days.
UCF
With the Big 12 up for grabs in its first campaign as a completely revamped league, UCF could make a push to a double-digit win tally under head coach Gus Malzahn’s lead.
The Knights picked up transfer signal caller KJ Jefferson by way of Arkansas, bringing in a talented arm to complement the program’s hefty rushing attack.
Last season, UCF ranked No. 4 nationally in rushing yards per matchup with nearly 230, with fifth-year commodity RJ Harvey returning for a late-career surge.
Additionally, Malzahn scored the services of established bell-cow Penny Boone, who won MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors behind 1,400 rushing yards in 2023.
UCF traveled almost 15,000 miles to road destinations a year ago, but this campaign, UCF will welcome Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and BYU to the “Bounce House” in Orlando.
If the revamped Knights can take advantage of their deeper, veteran roster, bolstered through inking the nation’s No. 22 transfer portal class, the Floridian bunch could make an outside push for the 12-team dance come December.
UNLV
Despite the Rebels’ three-game losing skid to close out last season, then first-year head coach Barry Odom helped UNLV eclipse its first winning season since 2013.
Moreover, the historic season was the program’s third go-around with nine or more victories since becoming an FBS squad in 1978.
Although UNLV lost 20 outgoing transfers, the Rebels were able to retain two invaluable pieces – star pass catcher Ricky White and play-caller Brennan Marion.
White posted 88 catches for 1,483 yards and eight touchdowns a year ago, widely thanks to Marion’s innovative “Go-Go Offense.”
In his first season at UNLV, Marion garnered the Mountain West Coordinator of the Year Award after posting 40 points or more in six games.
Defensively, the Rebels turned their backend into a strength after it lingered as a question mark over the offseason. Odom was able to score the signings of Jalen Catalon from Texas to anchor the safeties, while former Texas A&M cornerback Tony Grimes will hold down the outside.
UNLV is prepped to showdown against Houston and Kansas in two of the first three weeks of the season, allowing the Rebels to showcase their prowess on a national scope.
Rutgers
For the first time in Greg Schiano’s second stint in Piscataway, Rutgers finished its campaign with a winning record a year ago, highlighted by its first bowl victory since 2014.
Now, the Scarlet Knights are entering the 2024 campaign with substantial buzz, returning 74% of its production from last year, the eighth-most among Power Four squads.
Schiano’s defense limited opponents to 21.2 points per game last season, good for the 34th-best mark in the country, and this season, the offense should live up to its standard.
With talented rusher Kyle Monangai returning after a 1,262-yard output coupled with the addition of Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback, Rutgers now has the weapons to put up points in a hurry.
By Big Ten standards, Rutgers’ schedule is more than manageable. In the conference’s first year without divisions, the Scarlet Knights will not play Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State this year, with their toughest matchup coming in a mid-season road test against USC.
Schiano’s heard the noise, but he’s made sure his team has remained focused on the task at hand amid fall camp.
“You hear all that stuff, it’s like poison,” Schiano said last week. “It’s sitting on the counter it doesn’t harm you. If you start drinking it, you’re in trouble. We have to work. That’s all we have to do.”
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Wisconsin
In the new-look, 18-team Big Ten, there’s bound to be more than just one College Football Playoff dark horse.
Last year, first-year Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell transformed a squad that finished 5th in the Big Ten West in 2022 into the 2nd-best team in the division a year ago – without solidified quarterback play.
After a hefty transfer portal haul, highlighted by snagging Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke through the portal, who comes to Madison with nearly 7,500 passing yards under his belt in 32 career games.
Like Rutgers, the Badgers’ defense impressed under Fickell’s mentorship a year ago. Wisconsin allowed 24 points or more only twice all year, and it returns 71% of its defensive production from a year ago.
Unlike Rutgers, however, the Badgers are ramping up to play a brutal schedule, ranked as the nation’s 20th most difficult slate.
Out of conference, Wisconsin welcomes Alabama to Camp Randall Stadium in mid-September, while also playing USC, Penn State, Oregon, and Iowa in Big Ten play.
To help Van Dyke, Wisconsin must commit to the run more. When the Badgers ran 35 times or more, they went 7-0 last season.
When the Badgers failed to stay devoted to the ground game, or ran it less than 35 times, they went 0-6.
USF
When Alex Golesh decided to leave his post as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator to become the head man at USF, he knew program’s “sleeping giant” label wouldn’t stand for much longer.
This offseason, I sat down with Golesh, who told me “I truly think this place can win a national championship.”
While not many other Group of Five coaches can echo a similar sentiment, it’s clear that recruits share Golesh’s lofty vision.
The Bulls brought in 14 transfers this offseason, including high-caliber prospects from solidified Power Four programs like South Carolina, Tennessee, and Colorado.
Now, coming off a 45-0 beatdown of Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl, USF is chomping at the bit to carry its newfound momentum forward.
If USF takes an unprecedented step forward, it will be because of quarterback Byrum Brown’s offensive leadership.
Brown, one of the most accomplished Group of Five gunslingers in the sport, finished last season with 3,292 passing yards and 809 yards on the ground.
The Bulls are projected to win at least seven games this year, but don’t be surprised if Golesh’s group ascends to a double-digit victory tally behind explosivity and charisma.
If you have any questions, comments, or feedback, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me by email at adam@brenemanmedia.com.
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Shoutout to Connor Krause for helping to write this newsletter and putting it together!
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